The January position report, released by the Almond Board of California on 9th February, showed January shipments reached 230 million pounds (+30% Y-o-Y), a record for the month. The shipment figure comes in 9 million pounds higher than the previous January record, seen in 2020, and was on the higher end of industry expectations.
Market participants surveyed by Mintec ahead of the release of the report estimated November shipments in the range of 200-235 million pounds, with most market participants returning figures of 220-225 million pounds. The full results of the Mintec pre-Position Report survey can be found via this link.
Following the data release, market participants reported to Mintec that offer pricing on the majority of items rose 5-10 cents/lb. However, the question for many market participants was if trading will be seen at this level, with one exporter saying, “[offer] prices moved up after the last report as well, but buyers weren’t willing to engage, and they came back down. Given how positive the numbers are this time, I’m hopeful that this time the increases will stick, but only time will tell.”
Crop receipts came in at 2.48 billion pounds by the end of January, down 12% from the same point last season. Market participants expect the final crop receipt figure to come in close to 2.50 billion pounds, lower than the 2.60 billion seen in the USDA objective estimate, but not by a large enough margin to significantly change the supply/demand balance.
New sales saw a significant uptick during January, with 350 million pounds put on the books, an increase of 108% from the five-year average new sales figure in January. The total industry sold position came in at 62%, only 1 percentage point behind average.