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In recent months, the global salmon market has observed significant shifts, which have impacted Norwegian and Chilean salmon prices.
Norway
In May 2024, the price of Norwegian salmon increased by 6.5% Q-o-Q due to supply chain disruptions. National holidays in Norway have reduced harvest and processing capacity in May. In addition, there has been a surge in the volume of "production fish," the lowest quality category for human consumption. The Norwegian Food Safety Authority's latest report revealed that this category includes fish with skin injuries, and the percentage of this category is above previous years . These may influence the price of whole-farmed Atlantic salmon in the future.
Chile
The Chilean salmon market shows signs of volume recovery. According to the latest Chilean Salmon Council report, Chilean salmon export volume increased by 10.5% Q-o-Q. Despite the boosted export volume, the Mintec analytics show that the Chilean salmon price declined by 1.6% y-o-y in May. This price drop may be attributed to decreasing interest from the Brazilian market, potentially linked to adverse weather conditions and flooding in Brazil.
Advantageous Environmental Conditions in Chile
Southern Chile's weather during autumn and winter affects coastal oceanographic characteristics. The presence of strong waves induces turbulence, and the seasonal solar radiation change has contributed to a decline in harmful algal blooms (HABs). Additionally, seasonal oceanographic and atmospheric factors enhance oxygen levels, creating better farm conditions.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Aquafeed Prices
The neutral condition of ENSO has implications for Chilean salmon production. With lower production risks, the industry can operate in a more stable environment. Furthermore, ENSO influences the price of fish meal and fish oil used in aquafeed. As ENSO remains neutral and likely moves to La Niña, prices for these essential ingredients are expected to decrease, benefiting salmon producers.
