---
title: Estimate adjustments and quality concerns impact rapeseed production
description: Concerns have continued to mount about rapeseed production and harvests, with recent insights from Mintec's survey of market players revealing a notable shift...
image: https://www.mintecglobal.com/hubfs/Fotolia_150903950_Rapeseed-1.jpg
---
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# Estimate adjustments and quality concerns impact rapeseed production
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August 11, 2023
2 mins read
#### Estimate adjustments and quality concerns impact rapeseed production
Concerns have continued to mount about rapeseed production and harvests, with recent insights from Mintec's survey of market players revealing a notable shift in estimates. The European rapeseed crop is now projected to fall within the range of **19 to 19.3 million metric tonnes**, with the **UK contributing an expected 1.3 million metric tonnes**. This cumulative total of approximately **20.45 million metric tonnes** is in contrast to earlier season forecasts, which had initially placed estimates between **21 and 21.5 million metric tonnes.**
**This adjustment in estimates comes alongside a growing apprehension about crop quality in key regions, notably France and Germany. Unusually heavy rainfall has led to harvest delays, rendering the crops susceptible to moisture and pest damage**. Not only is production lower than anticipated, but these quality concerns also hold the potential to exert influence on the market dynamics ahead. **Should these indications hold, they could precipitate upward price pressures in the rapeseed market, according to market players.**
Meanwhile, another factor contributing to potential price increases lies across the Atlantic. In Canada, key rapeseed growing areas, like Saskatchewan, are persistently grappling with hot and dry conditions despite sporadic rains. **Mintec's recent survey of market players, reflecting market sentiment, maintains the previously reported production estimate of 14 to 16 million metric tonnes for this region, a deep decline from Canada’s usual production of 18 to 20 million metric tonnes.**
The constraints within the rapeseed market are evident across weeks of observation. **Prolonged rainfall has hindered harvest efforts in France and Germany, with about 12% of the harvest incomplete in France and limited activity observed in Germany.** While demand for French seeds is somewhat tempered by pricing considerations, an exception is a robust interest in GHG rapeseed, spurred by attractive margins for German crushers.
**Adding to the complex landscape are competitive pricing dynamics. Seeds from Ukraine are priced significantly lower on a DAP basis—around €80 to €100/mt lower than MATIF futures prices.** However, recent developments, such as the closure of the grain corridor deal on 17th July and disruptions to Danube ports that Ukrainian traders relied on, have constrained export options**. The prevailing sentiment among many EU players is that Ukrainian traders are shifting their focus towards marketing goods within the EU, potentially pressuring prices downward.** Should this trend persist, it might prompt players to compete aggressively or withhold seeds, anticipating future price increases due to limited availability.
**As harvest outlooks dim, the rapeseed market remains tied to unpredictable weather, quality variables, and evolving trade flows – collectively shaping an uncertain future for both seed and oil.**
Topics: [Oilseeds, Oils & Fats](https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/tag/oilseeds-oils-fats)
Kyle Holland
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