ANALYSIS: Ukraine export logistics under strain as attacks intensify ahead of year-end

Market participants told Expana this week that operations at Ukraine’s Yuzhni port have been suspended following Russian shelling. Russia continues to launch missile and drone attacks, causing sustained damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, including critical export facilities.

While escalation in attacks ahead of Christmas and New Year has been observed in previous years, market sources say the current situation is more severe. “This hasn’t been the case in prior years. Now there is a real risk that some terminals will be forced to shut down,” one source said. As a precaution, large trading houses have started booking quotas at rail terminals near Ukraine’s western border, including sites close to Poland.

Rail transport, however, is also under strain. “The system is struggling,” another source explained. “Russia has shelled power facilities, leaving some stations without electricity. They are switching to generators, but productivity has dropped by around 50%.”

The central concern for market players is how exports will be managed over the next two to three months. Several multinational traders have begun reserving rail wagons and rapidly filling quotas at western-border terminals. While this does not imply full visibility on future developments, it does signal active contingency planning: if deep-water ports cease operations, traders would be ready to pivot to rail-based export routes.

Meanwhile, shipping risks in the Black Sea are also rising. Sources warn that maritime conditions are likely to deteriorate further in the coming weeks and participants say the challenges to vessel movements are becoming recurring and structural rather than isolated incidents.

As a result, the industry is establishing backup export channels. Market players told Expana they believe grain prices could spike again if disruptions in the Black Sea region intensify. One mitigating factor, however, is timing: with the situation unfolding ahead of the holiday period, many traders have already sold part of their volumes, providing liquidity and helping them weather short-term disruptions.