The Mintec Benchmark Prices [MBP] for Wheat Milling 11% DDP Rouen FR was assessed at €351.00/mt, up 8% month-on-month, due to uncertainty regarding the grain corridor’s future as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating.
On 21st September 2022, President Putin announced a partial military mobilisation (300,000 reservists) to join the war in Ukraine, the third mobilisation in Russian history (1914, 1941). Furthermore, he declared referendums in four occupied areas of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia), for these to be incorporated within Russia. The announcement has caused concerns that this may disrupt the supply of grain leaving Black Sea ports. A Mintec source added, “If there is a supply disruption via the grain corridor deal, we could see grain prices moving up from current levels”.
Market sources told Mintec that from 1st Aug-29th Sept 2022, 238 vessels departed Ukrainian ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny), carrying 5.43 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds. Of these, over 30% of vessels have gone to lower-to-middle income countries. In total, via all transport modes, the 2022/23 staples’ export from Ukraine has amounted to 7.2 million tonnes so far, down 43.3% year-on-year. A Mintec source added, “Today (27th September), Maran Excellence, the biggest vessel in the grain corridor so far and in Ukrainian grain exports’ history, departed from Yuzhny Port to Spain, carrying 114,600 million metric tonnes of grains, including 32,600 million metric tonnes of wheat. We are trying to export as much as possible given the current circumstances”. Furthermore, there have been reported drone attacks near the Ukrainian port of Odesa (26th September), which is part of the grain corridor deal, details of any damage is currently unknown.