.png?width=145&height=54&name=Mintec_Logo_Small_Use_Mono_RGB%20(2).png "Mintec_by_expana_dark"){kind=logo}
In the February WASDE report, the US soybean crop estimate was kept unchanged for this season compared to last month’s report, at 116 million metric tonnes (+29% y-o-y). However, revisions were made to both domestic crush and ending stocks. According to the USDA, domestic crush is estimated down by 408,000 tonnes from January’s estimate, to 61 million metric tonnes, on the back of lower domestic soybean meal disappearance and a higher soybean meal extraction rate. Meanwhile, ending stocks are now estimated at 6 million metric tonnes, 7% higher month-on-month (m-o-m) with exports remain unchanged m-o-m, but are down by 8% y-o-y, to 54 million metric tonnes.
On the South American side, while the USDA maintained its record Brazilian crop estimate at 153 million metric tonnes, the Argentinian crop was revised lower m-o-m by 10%, to 41 million metric tonnes. The latter remains above Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange’s (BCR) estimate of 34.5 million tonnes, reported on Wednesday 8th February, a further decline of 7% m-o-m. Adverse weather conditions continue to plague the Argentinian crop, meaning estimates could be closer to the BCR’s estimate of 34.5 million metric tonnes, the lowest level since the 2008/2009 season. Nonetheless, the record Brazilian crop is set to offset losses from Argentina, bringing overall South American soybean production to 209 million metric tonnes (+14% y-o-y), thus putting downward pressure on bean and oil prices post the WASDE report release on 8th February.The CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures price settled at USc 1,519/60 lbs bushels and USc 59.17/lb, down by 1% and 3.2% week-on-week (w-o-w), respectively, on Thursday 9th February.
However, heavy rainfall in Brazil has continued to cause delays to harvest, which could cause an upside risk to prices as further delays could keep supply tight and lead to buyers turning to the US for supply. Additionally, demand from China would remain a watch-point for prices, as recent politcal tensions with the US could impact export sales.
