Market participants surveyed by Mintec ahead of the release of the USDA Objective Measurement gave a wide range of responses of 2.20-2.55 billion pounds. The majority of those surveyed expected the report to come in between 2.30-2.50 billion pounds.
“If the report comes in at 2.50 [billion pounds] or higher, it’s going to be a bloodbath. A lot of smaller growers are dealing with high mortgages and have tapped out their lines of credit. If prices fall again, I’d expect to see a lot more foreclosure signs popping up; the banks aren’t willing to fund another year of losses,” a US handler said to Mintec.
On the buy side, several buyers spoken to by Mintec were unconcerned over the release, with one Spanish buyer saying, “no matter what the Objective comes in at, there isn’t going to be a shortage of almonds. The carry-in is looking too large, so longer term, it seems like any upwards price movement is likely to correct downwards.”
This sentiment was repeated by both buyers and traders, who were uncertain if there was sufficient demand to sustain higher price levels throughout the remainder of the season.
“If the Objective comes in on the low end, I’m expecting prices to rubber band again. Sellers will try to put their pricing up, but someone who needs cashflow will break ranks, and the race to the bottom will repeat. The question is where the price floor will be,” a UK trader said.
To stay up to date on developments in the almond markets, subscribe to the Mintec Weekly Almond Report by emailing Nuts@Mintecglobal.com. The report, which is released each Thursday, provides in-depth information on pricing and market dynamics.
