Ukrainian farmers brace for reduced 2023/24 production
Ukrainian farmers face critical planting decisions for the 2023/24 season amid continued conflict and economic instability. Many plan to stick with the cautious, low-cost approach they employed this past growing season.
After dealing with whether to plant at all in 2022, farmers minimised upfront investments by using less fertiliser, pesticides, and machinery, reducing risk but likely lowering yields. Despite reduced harvests, farmers profited from crops like wheat due to low costs.
More farmers plan to use this conservative model for 2023, Mintec has learned. The focus will be on inexpensive wheat and sunflower production, foregoing more costly crops like corn and rapeseed. With less need to purchase inputs, farmers feel less pressure to sell their 2022 inventory immediately.
However, this shift toward lower-intensity techniques will likely reduce production volumes overall next year. Lower fertiliser applications will cap yields, and the concentration on just a couple of discounted crops will also limit Ukraine's agricultural exports, with some players suggesting to Mintec that rapeseed volumes produced could drop as much as 700,000 metric tonnes in the 2023/24 season.
The uncertain outlook means farmers are reluctant to make big investments or push for maximum yields. Their priority is survival, industry participants have told Mintec, even if it means settling for smaller harvests in the 2023/24 season.
That cautious mindset represents a defensive posture aimed at preserving farmers' ability to produce at all amid volatile conditions. But it threatens to curtail Ukraine's normal role as a major supplier in global agricultural markets for rapeseed and corn.
