On the 2nd of November, the grain corridor deal resumed following the involvement of the United Nations and Turkey. The deal had previously been suspended by Russia on the 30th of October. The suspension of the grain corridor deal was a bold, short-term move by Russia.
According to a Mintec source, “we saw vessel movements despite the deal’s suspension. On the day of the deal’s suspension, there were 12 agricultural vessels leaving Ukrainian ports, and four vessels were heading for loading. Now, let’s see if the deal will be actually extended after the 19th of November.” Another Mintec source added, “there is a likelihood that the deal could be renewed, but you can see that Russia is also trying to push its own grain exports, which are at a very slow pace due to sanctions. So, I think Russia will try to get some bargains here.”
As previously reported, the world supply and demand balance sheet depends on wheat flow from the Black Sea. This will be the major deciding factor for wheat prices going forward. A Mintec source noted, “no extension of the grain corridor deal will most likely make Ukrainian domestic grain prices cheaper as they have a plentiful supply.” Corn fundamentals are also impacted by the Black Sea grain corridor, as Ukraine is a major corn exporter in the world market.