Due to dry weather during the growing season, Spanish olive oil production is set to decline in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY). Market players estimated olive oil production from Andalusia to be between 500,000 metric tonnes and 550,000 metric tonnes. This would mean that the whole of Spain is likely to produce circa 680,000 to 730,000 metric tonnes of olive oil. If production does slip to the projected levels, this would be nearly a 50% decline in Spanish-produced volumes.
Despite the expected downturn in Spanish-produced volumes, alternative origins look set to produce significantly more olive oil than last year. Market players submitted estimates for Greek olive oil production at 340,000 metric tonnes (+54% y-o-y), and Turkish at 400,000 metric tonnes (+74% y-o-y). If these production figures hold, when the harvest is finished in the coming months, the global supply of olive oil may not be as low as many market players were anticipating. Thus, the extra supply from Greece and Turkey could weigh on global olive oil prices in the coming weeks and months.