Rapeseed Oil Prices Decline to Levels Last Seen in February 2021
The Mintec Benchmark Prices [MBP] for Rapeseed Oil FOB Rotterdam [Mintec Code: RSOR] was assessed at €1,049.50/mt, down €30.00/mt on the week on 25th of January, this is then lowest price for the commodity since February 26 2021.
The continued price decreases are due to continued large imports of rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia which are then being crushed within the EU. This is adding to the already significant levels of supply of rapeseed oil within the European market. Contributing to the bearish tone of rapeseed oil over the week was the large bid-to-offer (-€50 per metric tonne) spread observed for the forward months, which in prior weeks was much tighter (-€20 to -€30 per metric tonne). This may signal that interest in the forward delivery of rapeseed oil is waning. Many players have now purchased volumes for this period. If this continues to be the case, rapeseed oil prices may continue to decline in the coming weeks.
A trader commented to Mintec, “the imports of rapeseed into the EU are pressuring rapeseed complex prices downward. Quite simply, too much is being crushed and there is too much availability of seed, oil and meal in the market. Now demand for the forward months appears to have taken a hit. This is a bearish sign and further confirmation of rapeseed and rapeseed oil’s bearish outlook. Increased EU plantings are another bearish nail in the coffin at this point.”
It was reported to Mintec that winter planting of rapeseed in the EU was likely between 5.92 and 6.02 million hectares, an increase in estimates of 200,000 hectares on the week. If realised come harvest in June and July, this would be the highest level of plantings in six years within the EU and could provide downward price pressure to rapeseed oil even before the harvest period, reducing prices further from current levels.
A rapeseed oil buyer commented to Mintec, “the EU planting is further confirmation of a lack of bullish sentiment in the rapeseed and rapeseed oil markets. Good production is now more or less guaranteed everywhere apart from Ukraine, but even it planted 104% of the expected volumes. The only factor that could ‘save’ the rapeseed complex from its bearishness is the removal of other biodiesel feedstocks, such as soybean and palm oil. The new deforestation law is an extra factor which could further limit the availability of the other oils and increase reliance on rapeseed.”