---
title: Palm Oil Prices Decline Despite Bullish MPOB Report
description: "The MBP for Crude Palm Oil CIF Rotterdam [Mintec Code: CPOR] was assessed at $994.50/mt, down $40.00/mt on the week, due to players having..."
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# Palm Oil Prices Decline Despite Bullish MPOB Report
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December 16, 2022
2 mins read
Palm Oil Prices Decline Despite Bullish MPOB Report
The MBP for Crude Palm Oil CIF Rotterdam [Mintec Code: CPOR] was assessed at $994.50/mt, down $40.00/mt on the week, due to players having good coverage until the end of 2022 and not needing to seek additional purchases. Despite this, market players expressed bullish sentiment for the coming weeks as the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) report released on 13th December was a shock to the market.
The MPOB report led to a 7.33% decline in palm production, the first production decline in nearly ten months within Malaysia. Imports of palm products into Malaysia fell by 31.88%, hitting the lowest level in over two years. The result of these two factors was a decrease in Malaysian palm stock levels, which were down by 4.98%. This is important because market players surveyed by Mintec before the release of the report pegged stocks unchanged or circa 1% down. Malaysia could run low on supplies in the coming weeks and months, following the lower stock levels, which is likely to move prices up from current levels according to market players.
A palm oil trader commented to Mintec, “The MPOB report was bullish on palm fundamentals. The report came as shock, as most players had all critical stock levels virtually unmoved. The concern is that stocks from Malaysia may drain very quickly as key international buyers, such as China and India, are still short of volumes. If volumes start to diminish, sellers are going to increase prices and buyers will have to pay. As long as palm oil remains the cheapest oil, I don’t see any bearishness on the horizon.”
It has been reported to Mintec that Indonesia looks set to raise its Crude Palm Oil (CPO) reference price for December to $871.99/mt, up from $824.23/mt. An increase in the reference price would mean that CPO would attract a higher export tax of $52/mt, up from $33/mt, thereby increasing the prices of Indonesian palm oil on the international market. Market players told Mintec that this was a tactical decision from the Indonesian government. This is because the Indonesian government is aware that key buyers do not have enough palm oil. Thus, they would be ‘forced’ to buy, even with the higher reference price and export taxation. Also, higher prices from Indonesia are likely to cause Malaysian players to raise prices for CPO, thereby increasing palm oil prices from current levels from all origins.
Topics: [Oilseeds, Oils & Fats](https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/tag/oilseeds-oils-fats)
Kyle Holland
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