The orange juice market continues to rally globally, reaching new records in October since the series began in 1994 for the Mintec Benchmark price of Brazilian-origin orange concentrate delivered to Europe under FCA terms [Mintec Code: FJ01]. The current price is $5,390/mt, a 20% increase month-on-month and a 115% increase compared to the previous year. The high price has created interest among speculative traders.
The primary driver of the orange juice market dynamics is the supply situation. The persistent threat of greening disease continues to damage orange trees in key-producing countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and the US. Greening disease, an incurable bacterial disease, has been leading to premature fruit drop, bitter and misshapen fruit at reduced yields. Eventually, it kills afflicted trees.
In Brazil, which accounts for more than 75% of the world's orange juice supply, juice stocks have dwindled to nearly zero according to market sources. This depletion results from diminishing initial juice inventories, which have been declining year after year since 2020. There is an increased dependence on Brazilian orange juice from the US, as stocks dwindle; while European demand remains robust, the market's supply cannot keep up with demand, pushing up prices. Given the substantial losses incurred by growers due to greening disease, many are hesitant to reinvest in planting more orange trees, as reported by market sources.
The graph shows the price of orange juice concentrate since 2019.