Mintec's 2023 Thanksgiving Dinner Index
Mintec’s Thanksgiving Dinner Index, which measures price fluctuations across key food commodities that make up a traditional Thanksgiving dinner, fell by 21.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). This countered the record-high value for the month of October of the previous year.
Most pertinently to the main meal index, detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) fell dramatically during the spring and summer, allaying some supply concerns, and causing the US turkey price to plummet y-o-y in October. However, recently rising cases of HPAI could accelerate stock losses from the remainder of 2023 through spring 2024. The cost of bone-in hams also dipped on robust supply, while the price of pork loins rose on firm demand. US potato prices fell by more than half y-o-y, as higher planted area and improved yields boosted supply. Subsequently, the main meal index fell by 24.6% y-o-y, reversing the 16.6% y-o-y increase from October 2022.
The bread index fell by more than 57% y-o-y, as geopolitical fears regarding global wheat supply eased, following the grain corridor deal allowing Ukraine to boost wheat exports. Ukrainian exports had been severely restricted the previous year because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Mintec’s dessert index, representing the traditional southern classic pecan pie, grew by 11.2% y-o-y, on the back of surging sugar prices, as key producer India extended its ban on sugar exports in order to boost domestic supply.