Prices of Indian cumin continue to rally, with the Mintec cumin price in the local Unjha market up by almost 25% in the four-week period to 5th July, at INR 55,000/100kg ($668/100kg). The price has risen by 170% over the past twelve months, with the price rally significantly gathering pace since mid-December last year.
The combination of lower production, tight stocks and robust demand has led to the prices surging in recent months.
According to India-based Agriwatch, the 2023/24 cumin production in India is anticipated to reach approximately 303,000 tonnes compared with 316,000 tonnes produced last year. With the carry-in stock into 2023/24 essentially half the size of the last year (38,000 tonnes versus 75,000 tonnes in 2022/23), the total supply for the current campaign is projected to decline to 345,000 tonnes, almost 50,000 tonnes less than last year, according to Agriwatch. Some market participants anticipate an even larger supply deficit.
Demand from some of the key export markets, particularly China, has been reportedly strong due to limited availability in other origins, according to trade sources. This, along with speculative buying and strong domestic demand, has added further pressure to cumin prices. The question now is whether the demand will be able to keep pace amid the over-inflated market.
“Supply in India is tight this year, and some markets have introduced new regulations on imports of certain products, which is further squeezing the supply available for exports,” a European spice importer noted.
The comparably smaller Middle Eastern crops normally harvested after the Indian crop (May-August), have so far failed to ease the bullish market sentiment for Indian cumin.
