---
title: Market expects record US almond shipments in June
description: Market participants surveyed by Mintec during the last week of June were expecting another record month of shipments ahead of the official release of the June position report on 12 July.
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---
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# Market expects record US almond shipments in June
[back to insight ](https://www-mintecglobal-com.sandbox.hs-sites.com/our-insight-2018)
June 30, 2022
2 mins read
Market participants surveyed by Mintec during the last week of June were expecting another record month of shipments ahead of the official release of the June position report on 12 July. Estimates were reported in a range of 245-275 million pounds, with the majority of market participants returning figures of 260-265 million pounds. If realised, a figure of 260 million pounds would be an 18% increase from the previous June shipment record of 220.5 million pounds which was achieved in June 2021.
“My conservative estimate for June is 260 [million pounds], but I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach 270 [million pounds]. Personally, we’ve had three good months in a row and July is looking to be another strong month for us. The only thing that could throw a wrench in the works is if the unions go on strike and ports grind to a halt”.
The current contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association is due to expire on 1 July, and negotiations have been ongoing since the start of May. Both parties have recently come forward to state that a deal is unlikely to be struck before the deadline, however it has recently been announced that the unions will not be striking in the first instance, which was previously a concern.
A shipment figure of 260 million pounds in June would bring remaining current crop inventories to 1,014 million pounds. Following this, if July is another record-breaking month (which industry sentiment points to as a likely situation), ending stocks could be brought down to between 700-800 million pounds, a situation unthinkable by many at the start of the year. One US exporter described the recent shipping performance as a “godsend” before saying, “we were staring in the face of a billion pound carry at the start of the year, and since then we’ve managed to gradually bring that down. There are still going to be a lot of industrial quality almonds around, but nowhere near as bad as we thought at the start of the year”.
While strong shipment figures would typically lift the market, this has not been the case in recent months, with heavy supplies weighing on prices. A US-based trader disclosed their view on the situation stating, “a high shipment figure is all well and good, but in my mind it just means there are larger stocks at destination. A significant proportion of the buyers I deal with are planning to use old crop well into Q4 [2022], so strong shipments now are just eating into new crop demand later in the year”.
To stay up to date on developments in the almond markets, subscribe to the Mintec Weekly Almond Report by emailing [PRA@Mintecglobal.com](mailto:PRA@Mintecglobal.com). The report, which is released each Thursday, provides in-depth information on pricing and market dynamics.
Topics: [Nuts, Seeds & Dried Fruit](https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/tag/nuts-seeds-dried-fruit)
Aidan Wright
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