The US corn conditions improved last week and continued to mature slightly ahead of the average pace. According to the latest USDA crop condition report (published 17th July), US corn was rated 57% good-to-excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from the week prior (55%) but down 7 percentage points compared to the same time last year (64%). However, market players report that there is approximately 55% of US corn acreage still covered in drought, potentially meaning that the yield number estimates could be adjusted lower. The current forecast suggests that a small yield adjustment would not result in a big shortage of corn ending stocks. The estimates predict a carry-out approximation for the new crop above 1.5 billion bushels as long as yields are above 170 bu/acre; the USDA estimated yield at 177.5 bu/acre. Currently, the concerns are around the Ukraine grain export situation. Mintec has received information about an attack on critical Ukrainian ports on the Danube, specifically Reni. The damage is reported to be significant, and currently, the port is not operational. Therefore, warmer weather in the US and a new escalation in the Ukraine have supported the CBOT corn futures price.
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