Crisis in Ukrainian ports: Impact on exports and shipping concerns
Mintec has received information about an attack on critical Ukrainian ports on the Danube, specifically Reni, which damaged warehouses 4, 7, and 10. According to market players, the damage is significant, and currently, the port is not operational. However, Ukrainian sources have informed Mintec that efforts are underway to clear debris and restore operations as soon as possible although no timeline has been given.
This attack on the Danube ports is critically important because it has come after the grain corridor’s closure on 17th July 2023 which has meant that Ukraine is now unable to export from it's key Black Sea ports such as Odesa, Berdyansk and Mariupol. Many players in Ukraine had already already arranged shipments from Izmail and Reni ports on the Danube, considering them safer despite their lower throughput capacity. The consequences of this attack could be severe, potentially crippling sea-based exports from Ukraine. Market players have informed Mintec that Izmail and Reni can export around 1.8 to 2 million metric tonnes of commodities per month, with each port responsible for about half of this volume. Given the current state of Reni, Mintec estimates that potential export volumes from Ukraine via sea could drop to approximately 800,000 to 1 million metric tonnes. Industry players are already concerned that Izmail port may be the next target.
Adding to the situation’s complexity, Mintec has learned from market players within the industry that there are significant concerns that shipping through the Black Sea region may become exceedingly difficult. Players are showing reluctance to sell Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) in the Black Sea/Azov region, preferring Delivered at Place (DAP) or Carriage Paid To (CPT), or shifting to Iran and China. Although insurance can currently be obtained from shipping brokers and insurance underwriters, future availability is uncertain. If this situation persists, it could discourage players from shipping in the aforementioned regions, potentially forcing them to seek other origins or compelling Ukraine to rely more on land transportation of goods.
Additionally, Mintec has observed a surge in sunflower oil bids due to the current geopolitical instability. However, offers are scarce, and even the available offers are well above the market at approximately $1,050 per metric tonne on a Free on Board (FOB) basis, representing an increase of nearly $130 per metric tonne since the market's close on Friday. Sellers have expressed to Mintec that they believe prices may continue to rise due to the volatile situation, and as a result, they are not incentivised to sell at the current market levels.
