The Rosario Board of Trades (BCR) in its latest report, released 12th April, cut the Argentinian soybean crop to 23 million metric tonnes, 14.8% lower compared to estimates reported in March. Consequently, the CBOT soybean futures price settled at USc 1,504.2/60 lbs bushel on 12th April, 0.5% higher than the previous day’s settlement.
Prolonged dryness in Argentina, a key soybean producer, continued to result in reductions to its domestic crop estimates by various agencies. On 11th April, the USDA, in the latest WASDE report, reduced Argentinian soybean crop estimates by 18.2% m-o-m, to 27 million metric tonnes and close to trade estimates. While the cuts to the Argentinian crop strengthened bean prices, further upward price momentum has been limited by the record Brazilian crop (+18% y-o-y), which was revised upwards by the USDA to 154 million metric tonnes, 0.7% higher than the previous month's estimate. The Brazilian soybean harvest, which has reached 81% completion, coupled with its discounted basis, according to market sources, has increased buying pressure from Brazil. However, Argentinian soybean sales have been limited, despite the implementation of the country’s new ‘soy dollar’ preferential exchange, as reported by Mintec here, as farmers are holding on to stock due to low output. A Mintec source stated, “there has not been much engagement from buyers yet. Exporters are out and crushers are waiting for margins to improve. It is all about Brazil now.”
