Export licensing regime implemented for key agricultural products in Ukraine
Ukraine has introduced a licensing system for the export of various agricultural goods, including commodities like sunflower seeds, rapeseed, and soybeans, among others. This development is anticipated to temporarily impede exports as companies adapt to the new regulations.
Traders have expressed their expectations of an export slowdown, while market players familiarise themselves with these regulatory changes. According to sources knowledgeable about the matter, the process is relatively straightforward; exporters need to register with the State Agrarian Register (DAR), a step that typically takes around three days. Alternatively, there is the option to acquire a license, which may extend the approval process to approximately 10 days or even more. So far, many companies appear to prefer the expedited registration process.
Companies retain the flexibility to choose between these two options, with a significant preference for the quicker registration route thus far.
This move to impose export regulations aligns with the backdrop of 'low' rapeseed prices, discouraging Ukrainian farmers from exporting to the EU. Instead, they are storing rapeseed and increasing corn offers within the market to maintain cash flow. This situation could artificially restrict EU supply, especially considering that prices there have also been approaching the break-even point for farmers, according to industry players.
This trend might lead to a short-term reduction in availability until rapeseed prices reach a satisfactory level. Market players have informed Mintec that, at that point, farmers would be more inclined to sell again, potentially leading to a surge in seed supply to the market. However, it is essential to consider the increasing estimates for Canadian canola, with market players telling Mintec that the crop could be around 18 to 19 million metric tonnes. Combined with the rapeseed crops from Ukraine, which are already in storage, the supply outlook appears ample moving forward. This presents a bearish fundamental picture for rapeseed and, consequently, rapeseed oil, particularly as demand from the two key sectors, food and biodiesel, is reported to be satisfied until 2024.