Mintec learned that on 4th September, Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan held talks in Sochi on the prospect of resuming the grain deal initiative. From the talks, Russia is open to reopening the grain deal but only after restrictions on Russian agricultural exports are lifted (sanctions on the payments). On another note, Russia was open to supplying up to 1 million mt grains from Russia through Turkey to the poorest countries at free cost for transportation in the next two to three weeks. At this point, market players are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach, but are rather pessimistic about the grain export situation changes following the talks.
The Euronext wheat milling futures contract price [Mintec Code: WHT2] settled at €219.5/mt, down 4.04% week-on-week (w-o-w) at yesterday’s close, 4th September 2023. The grains market was quiet last week and this week so far, with no significant changes. Lacklustre demand for US wheat and a strengthening dollar has caused wheat futures to fall slightly. Currently, the market is in a ‘wait-and-see' mode, anticipating further price reductions before actively seeking to cover volumes. Market players still believe that persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea region will continue to create price volatility in the grains market. Ukraine's potential to expand its current export capacity remains uncertain, and market players believe that the market is underestimating geopolitical and global weather-related risks. Even though a second vessel has safely completed the journey from Odesa to Istanbul, despite a Russian blockade, the risk associated with grain vessels going through ongoing armed conflict in the Black Sea is large. Mintec source added, “there are huge risks involved – drones, sea mines, physical attacks on the ships and costly delays. Apart from the continued threat of Russian drones, the port infrastructure on the Danube River also lacks efficiencies. There is a shortage of pilots, which is critical for navigating larger ships through the river.” Thus, given the high risks, shipowners may buy grain from alternative countries like Brazil or Australia instead of Ukraine. Mintec learned that insurance companies are adjusting and re-calculating risks to justify higher coverage costs. At the same time, shipowners have increased freight rates, yet Ukrainian farmers are impacted the worst due to reduced prices for their grain.
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