Potential game-changer for 2024/25 arabica crop
Mintec's Tropical Research Services is monitoring market fundamentals, helping tropical commodities players anticipate changes in supply and demand.
Current weather forecast poses a significant risk to development of the 2024/25 arabica crop.
Rain
Heavy rain is forecast in the next 5 days in the main arabica producing regions of Brazil.
The latest Climatempo forecast expecting:
53 mm in South of Minas before the end of the month
49 mm in Zona da Mata
38 mm in Cerrado
37 mm in Sao Paulo
Hot temperatures
The coffee producing regions are also experiencing very hot temperatures which are expected to last at least until next week.
Flowering risks
If the forecast materialises, we would see a significant first early flowering for the crop around the beginning of September of 15% to 30% of flowering potential.
This early flowering will need significant follow up rains by mid-September to survive. A return to dry weather in the first half of September would therefore be negative for 2024/25 crop development.
A further risk comes from potentially high temperatures during the flowering process. Minas Gerais (like much of Brazil) is currently experiencing above average temperatures. This does not pose a significant risk to the crop until the flowering process commences. Once flowering starts, temperatures in the mid-30s C during the flowering process could cause the abortion of flowers.
Negative impact on production?
A combination of poor follow-up rains in the first half of September, and high temperatures during the flowering process would have a significantly negative impact on 2024/25 production potential.
That said, near term rains have been forecast since early August and the rainfall event has consistently been pushed back (eg, on 17th August the forecast was expecting 36 mm in SDM by 20th, while the actual amount of rainfall to 22nd has only been 6mm). So there is no guarantee that rains will be sufficiently heavy to lead to the early flowering.
This is an alert published by Mintec's Tropical Research Services.
Given the enormous uncertainty surrounding the weather outcome and its impact on 2024/25 arabica production potential, Mintec's Tropical Research Services will update their coffee subscribers every day until there is a greater clarity on the outcome.
To explore the supply & demand dynamics, giving you competitive edge in coffee markets, get in touch with our experts at info@tropicalresearchservices.com.
