Adverse weather conditions in Brazil have continued to support soybean and soybean oil prices with the US soybean and soybean oil futures price up on the week to Usc 1,377.2/60 lbs bushels (+0.6%), and USc 54.19/lbs (+2.7%) on 21st November, with many players turning to the US for supply. Further price gains were limited by some favourable rainfall over the past weekend. However, there are forecasts for less rainfall across the southern region this week, while the central western and central southern key growing areas are anticipated to receive higher levels of precipitation, providing some heat stress relief for the crop. According to market sources, crop planting progress reached 68% this week, a 7-percentage point (p.p) w-o-w rise, although lagging 12 p.p compared to the previous year. Extended forecasts for the upcoming weeks note a return to dry conditions, leading many farmers to opt for an acreage shift to cotton plantings in lieu. Market players have opined that some areas are extremely dry, and any rainfall may be insufficient to revert damages with replanting needs significantly higher than initially anticipated. Notwithstanding a lower crop outlook for the 2023/24 season, currently pegged at 163 million by the USDA, due to the prolonged dryness, market players are uncertain on the volume of potential crop loss. Weather patterns and farmers planting decisions will remain a key consideration.
