Currently, Brazil has 50 cases of HPAI detected in wild birds in the states of Espírito Santo, Bahia, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo. Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) confirmed the detection of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (IAAP - H5N1) in a non-commercial subsistence farm.
As per the WHO Guidelines, this does not bring restrictions to the international trade of Brazilian poultry products. However, it is believed this was enforced against flocks in some countries, like the outbreak in the Netherlands in 2017, so there is a risk this pattern could repeat in Brazil as well.
Any outbreak in commercial flocks would have a material impact on the global chicken supply as Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, with 4.75m metric tonnes exported last year, and the world’s second-largest chicken producer after the US.
In addition, the Union of Agricultural Federal Tax Auditors (ANFFA Sindical) published a study that calculates €2.4 billion of losses to Brazil in the face of a possible outbreak of avian influenza. The survey points to an annual direct loss of BRL 7.3 billion in agribusiness exports and another indirect loss of BRL 6.1 billion in other sectors of the economy.
Although the World Health Organisation guidelines stipulate that only an outbreak in commercial flocks should result in trade suspensions, Japan has temporarily suspended poultry imports from Espírito Santo following the confirmed case and a second region Santa Catarina. While the State of Espírito Santo does not have a significant share in poultry exports from Brazil and accounted for only 0.19% of the total in 2022, shipments from the State of Santa Catarina to Japan represent just under 3% of the total Brazilian poultry exports. It would be meaningful if more countries decided to take these precautionary measures.
Brazilian prices do not yet appear to have been affected, at least in isolation. Since the announcement of the outbreak in Brazil, the wholesale price of Brazilian broiler chicken (deadweight) has declined by 18.6%, which is in line with the fall of US chicken prices which have decreased by 19.8% over the same period, as the chart below shows.
Source: Mintec Analytics
