The monthly average Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) NY arabica benchmark fell by Usc 7.5/Ib (-3.3%) m-o-m in May 2022, to a seven-month low of USc 218.1/Ib. The decline in the arabica price reflects robust exports reported by the International Coffee Organisation, in addition to the Brazilian marketing agency Conab raising its estimate for Brazil's 2022 coffee crop by 12% against its previous projection. Notwithstanding, the May 2022 average price remained significantly above the same period of the previous year, by USc 66.8/Ib (+44.1%) y-o-y, attributed to firm demand and higher costs.
The average monthly ICE European Robusta price fell by USD 17.1/MT (-0.8%) m-o-m in May 2022 to USD 2,078/MT. The dip follows firm supply reports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta supplier. According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnamese exports increased by almost one-fifth y-o-y during Q1 2022, after seemingly overcoming the freight and logistical issues that blighted trade during the previous calendar year. However, the May 2022 average increased substantially by USD 540.7/MT (+35.2%) y-o-y, attributed to firm demand. This is partly related to a substitution effect, as the squeeze on disposable income related to global inflation as prompted an increase in at-home coffee consumption at the expense of artisanal coffee shops and franchises.
