In the latest WASDE report released on the 12th of August 2022, US soyabean output for the upcoming 2022/23 marketing year (MY) (Oct ’22-Sept ’23), was revised marginally higher by 0.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 4.53 billion bushels (123.3m tonnes). Despite concerns of lower output due to hot and dry weather conditions in the Midwest in late July, the crop is still forecast to reach a record high for the 2022/23 MY (up 7.6% from the previous five-year average). This increase is due to higher yields offsetting lower harvested area (-0.3% m-o-m). Also, beginning stocks were revised higher by 6.3% m-o-m to 6.7m tonnes on lower 2021/22 exports, bringing the total supply for the 2022/23 MY to 129.8m tonnes.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyabean futures price soared by 8.3% m-o-m to USD 534/MT on the 12th of August as traders anticipated a reduction in production estimates due to adverse weather in the region. However, expectations of a higher US soyabean output is expected to put some pressure on the CBOT soyabean price in the short-term. While the report has led to some bearish sentiment in the market, the weather in the coming weeks will continue to be a watch-out factor.