The US soyabean crop is no longer expected to reach a record high for the 2022/23 marketing year (MY) (Oct ’22-Sept ‘23), due to the lower harvested area and yield on the back of adverse weather conditions in the Southern Plains. In the September USDA report, crop estimates were revised down by 3.4% month-on-month (m-o-m), to 119 million tonnes. This represents a decline of 1.3% from the previous year’s estimate. Consequently, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyabean futures price rose by 3.0% week-on-week (w-o-w), to US cents 1,534/60 lbs Bushel, on 13th September. Increased demand from China in recent weeks has also supported the US soyabean price. According to market sources, China is expected to continue to increase buying activity in the coming weeks to ensure food security. This could put further upward pressure on the US soyabean price. However, higher year-on-year production estimates for the 2022/23 season from South America (Brazil and Argentina) could offset US losses.
Similarly, the US soyabean oil output for the 2022/23 MY was revised lower in the USDA September report, down marginally by 0.9% from the previous month’s estimate, to 11.8 million tonnes. The CBOT soyabean oil futures price climbed by 4.4% w-o-w to US cents 72/lb. Higher domestic demand for soyabean oil for biodiesel consumption also supported this price rise, and is likely to continue doing so in the short-term. Other commodity prices have been rising in price too.