Ahead of the WASDE report, to be released on 11th August (12:05 pm ET), the soybean and soybean oil market remains mixed, as the market anticipates the USDA’s monthly supply and demand estimates update. Market sources have reported average trade estimates for US soybean production for the 2023/24 season to be between 114 million metric tonnes at the lower end and unchanged m-o-m at the higher end, compared to the USDA’s July estimate of 117 million metric tonnes. While the market expects ending stocks for the old crop to show little to no change, a steeper downward revision to ending stocks is expected for the new crop. The CBOT soybean price rose marginally by 0.1% w-o-w, settling at USc 1,431.4/60 lb bushels on 9th August. Conversely, the soybean oil futures prices (Aug-23) settled at USc 66.58/lb, down by 0.8% w-o-w on the same day.
Also limiting further upside price rises was the slight recovery to the US soybean crop as reported in the USDA’s Crop Progress Report released on 7th August. During the week ending 6th August, 54% of the US soybean crop was rated to be in good-to-excellent condition, rising by two percentage points (p.p) compared to last week’s ratings, a slight recovery following beneficial rainfall in the US farm belt. The state of Illinois contributed significantly to the improvement in overall US crop conditions, with good-to-excellent crop ratings jumping 12 p.p to 58% compared to the previous week’s ratings. Crop conditions remain lower than last year when 59% of the crop was rated to be in good-to-excellent condition during the corresponding period. However, as plenty of the soybean growing season remains, there is room for further crop recovery, with optimal rain in the US farm belt forecast for August and positive blooming progress, with 90% of the crop in the blooming stage versus 88% in the previous year.
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