The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) has recently published its early-season peanut production estimate for 2022/23. In May’s publication of the World Agricultural Production report published by the USDA FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service), the 2022/23 US peanut output is forecast to reach 2.84 million metric tonnes, a decrease of 60,000 tonnes (-2%) year-on-year (y-o-y).
The USDA FAS forecasts the 2022/23 peanut harvested area at 0.61 million hectares, compared with 0.63 million hectares in the previous campaign, down 3% y-o-y. In May’s Crop Production report published by the USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service), the peanut planted area for 2022/23 is projected to reach an estimated 635,770 hectares, down a marginal 1% y-o-y.
Nonetheless, there is consensus amongst market participants that the USDA’s peanut acreage projection for 2022/23 is over-optimistic. Amid high prices of crops such as cotton and corn, some key industry stakeholders expect the acreage to contract more substantially during the upcoming campaign, by potentially upwards of 5%.
A US broker said, ‘The decline is at 5% minimum, and with the potential for farmers to switch into other crops last minute, I would not be surprised to see plantings down closer to 10% from last season.’
A large European buyer commented, ‘If you consider higher prices of competing crops and the soaring input costs, there is an obvious pressure on prices, especially as peanuts continue to be competitively priced.’
Amid the concerns over the extent of this year’s peanut plantings in the US, the Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) of US peanuts (runners, medium, raw) rose by 7% in the four-week period to 18th May, to US cent 59/lbs, FCA basis. The MBP for US jumbo peanuts also increased by 7% during the same period, to US cent 60/lbs.
