The latest US Crop Progress Report highlighted a 5 percentage point (p.p) drop to 53% in the US soybean crop rated in good-to-excellent condition in the week ending 3rd September. This also represents a 4 p.p decline compared to the same period last year. The hot and dry weather in the US continues to lead to decimating crop quality with this week’s decline above market players’ expectations of only a 2 p.p fall. At the time of writing, the CBOT soybean futures price (Sept-23) was recorded at USc 1,377.2/60 lb bushels, up by 2.1% from the previous day’s settlement. Market sources anticipate supply tightness in the first half of the 2023/24 season (Oct ’23-Sept ’24) before the anticipated record crop from South America. A Mintec source added, “on top of lower acreage, we have lower yields, and with the growth in crush and strong crush margins, the US balance sheet is looking tight for the 2023/24 season.” The September WASDE report will be a watch-point for the market and price direction. However, the impact of the dryness may not be fully reflected in this month’s report until pod weights from the harvest beans are measured in October, according to market sources.
