Ahead of the USDA WASDE report, to be released on 12th September (12:00 pm ET), the soybean market anticipates a cut to the 2023/24 US soybean yields following adverse weather conditions during the crop's critical development stages (Aug-Sept). A Mintec source stated, “the US crop is certainly deteriorating; yield now looks at best 50 bushels per acre (bpa) but could probably end up between 48bpa-49bpa with the heat and lack of rainfall over pod fill.” If the lower range of the estimated decline is realised, this would represent a 4.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) decline as the USDA estimated yield to reach 50.2 bpa in August. Accordingly, US ending stocks are also expected to be revised downwards due to lower yields and production, with the average trade estimate anticipating a 15.5% m-o-m cut to ending stocks. Despite other bearish fundamentals such as the record Brazilian crop, market participants expect a rally in the market.
