Ukrainian exports face uncertainty following the potential extension of ban by Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia
Mintec has learned that, according to Poland's agricultural minister, Robert Telus, Poland along with Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania, has put forward a proposal to extend the ban on Ukrainian exports entering the aforementioned nations until the end of the year. This extension would go beyond the existing prohibition in place until 15th September, 2023. The proposed ban would apply to four of Ukraine's crucial exports: sunflower seed, rapeseed, corn, and wheat.
It is worth noting that under the current deal, Ukraine would still be allowed to transship commodities through these countries as long as they are not settled there. However, market participants are concerned that this could increase downward pressure on Ukrainian grains, oilseeds and vegetable oil prices, given the limited avenues for export, especially with the Grain Corridor currently inactive and the pool of potential buyers such as the EU and China reduced due to substantial stocks.
Consequently, Ukrainian sellers might have to contemplate reducing prices to attract interest from alternative origins, which could potentially lead to a decline in commodity prices originating from Ukraine, according to market sources.
This situation is of critical importance as some market players are even suggesting that further and more extended limitations, or even a complete ban, could trigger a wave of bankruptcies among Ukrainian farmers.