The Mintec Benchmark Prices for Turkish sultanas (type 9, FOB Turkey) were last assessed on 21st September at USD 1,600/tonne, unchanged month-on-month, but down USD 50/tonne (-3%) from the last week of August and the first week of September.
The market soared by more than USD 200/tonne in the second half of August after President Erdoğan announced that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) purchasing price for the 2022/23 sultana crop would rise by more than 100% from the previous campaign (TRY 27/kg for type 9 sultanas versus TRY 13/kg in 2021/22). Nonetheless, the market has since stabilised.
“Supply in Turkey is huge, and exporters have to sell. They cannot increase prices further”, one European trader told Mintec. Another trader added, “Turkey has a large crop this year. Before the rains, crop estimates ranged between 340,000-350,000 tonnes of sultanas, but this has now reduced to around 320,000 tonnes.”. A trader in the Netherlands also confirmed that the output is expected to contract by 5-10% from earlier projections following the rains.
Key growing areas in Manisa province have been experiencing erratic weather conditions in the past few weeks, with rains hindering production during the drying process. The rains are likely to cause tighter availability across lighter-coloured sultanas, mainly types 10 and 11, according to trade sources.
Meanwhile, the TMO is estimated to have accepted over 100,000 tonnes of sultanas from Turkish farmers, including the physical deliveries to its warehouses, according to trade sources. This is a huge increase from the previous campaign, when the TMO had accumulated approximately 60,000 tonnes of sultanas by the end of December 2021.
Amid the high TMO sultana purchasing prices, some traders have noted concerns over the limited availability of Turkish raisins from the 2022/23 harvest. This is a watch-out factor, and Mintec will continue to review the impact in future sultana/raisin market updates.
