After remaining stable in September, market participants expect prices of most packaging paper products to increase in October due to higher raw material costs and seasonal energy price increases.
NBSK (Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft) pulp prices have been falling steadily since the beginning of 2023, from €1,335/MT in December 2022 to €1,055/MT in August 2023, putting significant pressure on the cost of paper production. Nevertheless, pulp demand increased slightly in September due to a recovery in paper production after the seasonal downturn in August and a reduction in consumer stocks. As a result, pulp prices rose by €10/MT on average during the month. The upward price trend will likely continue in October, with Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget (Sweden) announcing in a press release on 10 October that demand for pulp is increasing, and they are raising NBSK prices to $1,200/MT.
Recycled paper market players report that there is strong demand from the Far East, where prices for recycled paper grades are much higher than in Europe, so the excess stockpiled material is being exported, which is also likely to be reflected in a rebalancing of the domestic market and higher prices in Europe.
Most energy prices seem to have passed their low in May and remain on an upward trend. The market expects to see a continuation of price growth in the near future. Thus, the EU electricity price index in mid-October is 33% higher than the last low in May. Coal prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which has a 10% share in electricity generation in the EU, rose by 16% (coal delivered into Amsterdam/Rotterdam region). Natural gas prices on the Netherlands TTF spot rose by 27% over the same period.
