In the EU, the cheese market has performed strongly, showing remarkable resilience with price increases over the last four months. However, the market sentiment for EU cheese lost its bullish momentum last week. The Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for Gouda EXW Europe [Mintec Code: J114] decreased during the week ending 29th June at €3,500/mt, down €50/mt. Also, edam prices had a severe price correction during the week; the MBP for Edam EXW Europe [Mintec Code: J113] stood at €3,250/mt, down €245/mt week-on-week. Thus, gouda prices will likely follow edam prices.
According to market participants, sellers have started to offer significant volumes for prompt delivery, which could mean that stocks have built up over recent weeks. Also, with most buyers covered for Q3 2023, and seasonal demand declining in the summer, most market participants believe that prices should continue to decline in the coming weeks. Other sources stated, “cheese prices should follow butter and SMP prices, and therefore decline in the coming weeks.” Another source indicated, “sellers were reluctant to drop prices, but with these current price levels, there are more sellers than buyers.”
Overall, fundamentals were unchanged, but stocks could build up quickly if demand does not keep up with production. Additionally, EU international sales are hindered by low competitiveness in the international markets and ample supplies in the main global dairy producers, with US cheese prices tumbling in the CME spot market last week, falling to the lowest price since May 2020.
