Unexpectedly, EU cheese prices rose over the last two weeks. For reference, the Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for Gouda EXW Europe [Mintec Code: J114] was last assessed on 16th February at €3,150/mt, up €355/mt over the fortnight.
It appears that the market dynamic has rapidly changed in the last couple of weeks. High stocks at cheese producers at the beginning of 2023 are no longer reported and cheese producers have propped up prices. Demand surged when gouda and edam were under €3,000/mt, when buyers took advantage of more affordable prices by balancing out supply and demand. Apparently, demand surged when gouda and edam were under €3,000/mt, when buyers took advantage of more affordable prices. However, buyers may have covered their security stocks and continue waiting, as market participants indicated, “buyers would have pulled out when prices surpassed €3,300/mt levels.”
The main question is if this bullish sentiment will strengthen in the following weeks. A market source stated, “technically, fundamentals are the same as the last two weeks, cheese prices usually lag butter prices, and this week butter prices went down.” However, another source stated, “I see the market going up very at a slow rate.” With the current cheese valorisation compared to other dairy commodities, the cheese revenue stream is likely more profitable compared to other dairy commodities, thus milk processors may prioritise cheese production.
Meanwhile, the MBP for Edam EXW Europe [Mintec Code: J113] stood at €3,150 /mt, up 11% in the last two weeks. Also, the mozzarella price went up, but at a faster rate in the last week. The MBP for Mozzarella EXW EU [Mintec Code: ED27] was last assessed on 16th February at €3,100/mt, up by 5% w-o-w.