The data for a raw material is called a series. Each series has a unique identification code and a short description e.g. CPOR - Palm oil crude cif R’dam. Mintec Analytics has series for prices, volume (e.g. production quantities) and indices. All graphs in Mintec Analytics are generated using series.
Customised series are data series that you wish to see in a different currency, unit, code or name (i.e. translate the name). A good example of its use would be to save a series in a different currency to your default currency. Customised series are also listed in a separate folder within the side bar and you can create groups of customised series. This means that you can create your own taxonomy of personal series. You can also customise a series to show it in a different unit on a Price Change Report, or to add a different currency onto a Seasonality widget.
Mintec curates data from over 400 different sources. These sources range from governmental organisations such as Eurostat or USDA, trade publications, trade organisations or our own proprietary data - Mintec Benchmark Series (MBP) or Mintec Category Indices (MCI). You can see the name of the source by clicking on the information icon 
in the top right hand corner of a commodity graph, or in the search results.
Not all series update at the same time.
Our sources usually provide data to us according to one of the following frequencies: daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly.
Sometimes the data may also appear to have a time lag due to the way it is collated and quoted by our source, e.g. our source might quote us February prices in April, and March prices in May.
You can see the frequency of the data series by clicking on the information icon in the top right hand corner of a commodity graph, or in the search results.
Each data series in Mintec Analytics will have a Native currency. The Native currency is the currency that the data is sourced in.
The Default or Preferred currency is chosen by you (via the dropdown menu from your name > My Settings) to automatically show the graphs in the currency that you prefer.
On the Commodity screen you can toggle between the Native currency of the data series and your Preferred currency.
For currency conversions, Mintec Analytics multiplies the value of a data series in its native currency by the previous day’s end of working day currency exchange rate.
e.g. if the Native currency of series is Euros (EUR) and it is graphed in British Pounds, (GBP) then the daily rate for Euros to Pounds Sterling will be applied to each daily value.
You can choose your Default or Preferred currency in My settings to automatically show the graphs in a specific currency irrespective of the Native currency.
The gap fill function automatically fills the gaps where data is not available.
This is useful for seasonal commodities such as fruits and vegetables where data is only available at certain times of year (when the commodity is in season/harvested).
Rather than showing a gap in the data when the commodity is out of season, the last known value is automatically copied across to each subsequent data point to fill the gap. This will show as a dotted line on the graph.
You can change the gap fill option in several places :-
Constant |
This allows you to choose which value to fill the gaps with |
Zero |
The gaps are filled with the value zero |
Null |
No gaps are filled |
Futures traders buy and sell contracts on a futures exchange through brokers. The exchange matches up buyers to sellers so that there are equal numbers of each; they never know who the other party to the transaction is. The date on which a contract becomes available, and the date on which it expires is determined by the exchange. For example, oil futures can be bought several years in advance and they may expire two months before the delivery month.
| * For further information on futures please refer to the Understanding Futures document |
We add new data to our platform constantly. If the data you need isn't available then please contact support@mintecglobal.com to make a request for new data. The team will explain the process to you.
The Facts tab shows general information about the graphed raw material.
This will include a description and uses of the raw material, global production, the major producers and exporters of the graphed raw material, crop calendar for the major producing and/or exporting countries and a map of growing areas, or a production process flow chart showing feedstocks and associated raw materials which are the product of the process to create the graphed raw material.
The availability of the Facts tab will depend on your subscription
The Top Players tab shows information for major producers or exporters listed in the Facts tab.
This tab shows a Price Change Report for data series from countries that are major producers or exporters of the graphed raw material.
The percentages shown are the difference between the latest available price value for that series compared to the value in the previous period, i.e. it will compare today’s value with the value a week ago, a month ago etc.
The availability of the Top Players tab will depend on your subscription
Raw material prices are impacted by fluctuations in supply, demand and macroeconomic conditions, which we define as Drivers.
This tab shows information about the historical supply and demand behaviour for the raw material graphed, as well as the historical behaviour of macro-economic drivers for the graphed raw material - you can see this information for the country represented in your chosen data series (graphed raw material) as well as for major producers and exporters identified in the Facts tab.
Each driver has a score, from 1– 5, that indicates how likely the current and forecast trend are to impact a price movement. Further information on how the drivers are calculated and what the figures mean is available by hovering over the information icon .png?width=24&height=24&name=info%20icon%20(WhatFix).png){kind=small}
The availability of the Drivers tab will depend on your subscription
This tab shows weather anomalies for the country represented in chosen data series (the graphed raw material).
The visualisation indicates the difference between the current conditions when compared to the typical average conditions for the country.
The dropdown list on this tab includes top producers and exporters from the Facts tab for the graphed raw material.
For agricultural commodities the tab shows more information (e.g. crop calendar growing stages) as these are affected by weather more directly than for non-agricultural commodities.
For non-agricultural commodities the tab will display the weather for the selected country or region Further information on weather is available by hovering over the information icon
The availability of the Weather tab will depend on your subscription
The Insight tab contains News and Analysis.
News: Written for the market of the graphed raw material or commodity, these can provide insight about major price changes in the data you see on your graph. The news can be country specific, regional or global.
News is colour-coded green.
Analysis: Full analysis reports on the commodity market graphed. These provide much more detailed insight about what is causing price movements and give a forward looking outlook on price direction. The reports are written to a schedule. The schedule of release and the available Reports can also be found by clicking on the Mintec Reports icon on the home page or the Sidebar.
Analysis is colour-coded pink.
The availability of the Insight tab will depend on your subscription
You can download a Negotiation Pack from the Commodities tab. The pack can be useful for upcoming negotiations with information from the Commodities screen such as the price chart, analysis that you have added to the chart, the price change report, drivers, weather and events.
The availability of the Negotiation Pack feature will depend on your subscription
The Commodity screen shows a single graph view with additional information such as Facts, Drivers, Weather and Insight*.
My Dashboards allows you to create customised dashboards that can include several graphs (including different types of graph) and RSS news feeds. Each graph can contain a different number of series, currencies and units to suit your needs. Dashboards can also be shared with colleagues and scheduled exports can be set up.
* The availability of this information will depend on your subscription
The availability of the My Dashboards feature will depend on your subscription
Creating a dashboard allows you to save all the data and information you need to make your decisions in one place. A dashboard can have multiple graphs and information contained in it. Once a dashboard has been created it is always live and up-to-date, saving you time and effort. You can also share dashboards with colleagues who have access to Mintec Analytics and set up a scheduled export of the dashboard at regular intervals.
The Mintec Dashboard Library contains ready-to-use dashboards which are built and maintained by Mintec. The series reflected in these dashboards are chosen to be the best representation of a commodity in a particular geography.
There are dashboards to cover all our Commodity categories and these are a quick way to get started using My Dashboards; it saves time so a user doesn't have to build their own Dashboard from the beginning.
Users will find Mintec Dashboards in their own folder, and may use the search bar to find a Dashboard containing data for the raw material you're interested in, then select the Dashboard to view it. Mintec Dashboards are Read Only.
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Mintec Dashboards are Read Only. If you want to then you can take a copy using the Copy icon 
.
You are able to make any changes you wish to the copied version as you are the creator/owner of that Dashboard.
The Read Only version will remain in 'Mintec Dashboards' for you to view if you want to.
A shared dashboard is a Read Only version of a Dashboard which another user has created, and therefore you can only edit the name.
If you want to, you can create your own version of a shared dashboard by copying it using the copy icon .
You are able to make any changes you wish to the copied version as you are the creator/owner of that Dashboard.
The Read Only version will remain in 'Shared Dashboards' for you to view if you want to.
Widgets are individual graphs or information panels that are displayed in a dashboard, added through My Dashboards. Different widgets show different information (see individual descriptions of the widgets).
A line chart allows you to display a graph showing up to 20 data series (depending on the size of the widget). On a line chart you can have up to 2 axis and add several different analysis types to the data series.
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The value widget shows the latest available value for a series. You can add 1 series to this widget in any currency or unit you choose.
A Bar Chart widget allows you to display data in a bar chart format.
Only volume data, such as production and consumption, import and export and other non-pricing figures, can be shown in a bar chart.
A Pie Chart displays the cost percentage of each component used in a cost models. Only cost models can be displayed on a pie chart.
An Information Panel gives you access to updates from other websites. The widget is an RSS reader. Please see “What is an RSS Feed?” for further information about RSS feeds.
RSS (RDF Site Summary or Really Simple Syndication) is a web-based feed which allows you to access updates to online content in a standardized, computer-readable format.
Websites that use an RSS feed for publishing frequently updated information will display this icon 
or indicate with the word RSS (or both).
To see an RSS feed, you will need an RSS reader, such as the Information Panel widget found in My Dashboards, which automatically checks the RSS feeds for new content.
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Not all websites have RSS capabilities, therefore these are not suitable for the Information Panel, which is an RSS reader.
The Link widget allows you to add links for a website that you use frequently or find useful for quick access.
The seasonality widget allows you overlap data from the same series; you can overlap data for one or two-year periods from the series. This is useful for identifying seasonal and cyclical trends in a series.
The Price Change Report widget allows you add up to 5 data series to see the price movements over set periods. All series are added in the same currency and unit.
You can use the cost-modelling feature to build a model that represents the cost of a finished product or the combined cost element of a specific raw material or category.
Using this feature, you can combine different amounts or weights of several data series to create a model.
You can use data series for raw materials that are components of a product or ingredients in a specific recipe to represent the cost of the overall product. You can also build complex models by adding data series for packaging, transportation, energy or labour costs.
A Weight % model is created using the weight of the ingredients in the product and will return the result as a value. This could also be known as a "Should Cost" or a "Cost of Goods Sold" (COGS) model.
A Cost % model is created using the cost of each of the ingredients in the product rather than the weight. A Cost % model will return the result as an index. This could also be known as a "Cost Breakdown" model.
The Mintec Model Library contains pre-built models. The series reflected in the models are chosen to be the best representation of a commodity in a particular geography.
There are models to cover a selection of food, packaging and non-food categories and these are a quick way to get started using My Models; a user can copy a Mintec Model in order to start their own model build from a template and modify according to their own specific information about a product.
Users will find Mintec Models in their own folder, and may use the search bar to find a Model, then select the Model to view it. Mintec Models are Read Only.
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Mintec Models are Read Only. If you want to then you can take a copy using the Copy icon .
You are able to make any changes you wish to the copied version as you are the creator/owner of that Model.
The Read Only version will remain in 'Mintec Models' for you to view if you want to.
A shared model is a Read Only version of a model which another user has created, and therefore you can only edit the name.
If you want to, you can create your own version of a shared model by copying it using the copy icon .
You are able to make any changes you wish to the copied version as you are the creator/owner of that model.
The Read Only version will remain in 'Shared Models' for you to view if you want to.
In the Advanced option you can add Mintec series, your own imported data or other cost models you have built, either by weight or as a percentage of the total weight, for each component in your model. Mintec Analytics can calculate for you how much of e.g. 1 litre of diesel to apply to your model.
The Simple option allows you to add a percentage cost or fixed cost to your model without the need for adding individual series or components of the product. The value you input will remain fixed across the timeline of the model.
In the Formula Builder option, you can do advanced calculations on Mintec series, your own imported data or other cost models you have built. The Formula Builder option uses standard mathematical formulas and operators to complete the calculation.
The factor is there to determine how much of the data series value to attribute to the cost, e.g. how much of 1 litre of diesel to apply to a model of a product.
If a data series that you reference when building a model has a factor of 1 it would apply the full value (100%) to the model.
If the factor was 0.5, it would add half (50%) of the value to the model.
The choice of the factor value will depend on the element you are adding to the model. An energy series, for example, may have a large factor as multiple kilowatt hours may be used to produce the product; whereas a transport factor might have a very small factor as many products are transported at once in the same vehicle or vessel.
For more information on how to use the factor, please contact support@mintecglobal.com
The Forecast Overview shows the available forecasts, the current trend direction, trend start date and hedging recommendation all on one screen.
The top section of the triangle has the Forecast itself; the middle section has the Macro and Technical Analysis, while the bottom covers the seven elements of the Fundamentals analysis. Please see our separate explanations of each of these. All sections are clickable to find the underlying analysis.
The colours indicate the current trend or price pressure of each element in our analysis. The red colour illustrates an uptrend or upwards price pressure, while the green colour illustrates a downtrend or downward price pressure. The yellow colour illustrates a sideways trend or that there currently is neither an upward nor downward price pressure. The grey colour is used when there is currently no data available for that specific part of the analysis.
The Macro section presents an analysis of the current economic conditions in the global and regional markets.
It considers both the short-term and the long-term trends in the Global PMI, along with a comparative analysis of the Global, American and Chinese PMIs.
The Technical Analysis is one of the most important analytical tools Mintec uses, as it provides essential timing signals.
The technical analysis is generally updated on a weekly basis, but it is a dynamic process depending on the price action, and thus in some weeks several updates might be necessary.
The exact date of the latest update can be seen on the pyramid and at the top of the Technical Analysis section. This section is made up of two parts, a short-term and long-term view. The short-term trend shows what is expected to happen with the price in the intermediate future, while the long-term trend shows our expectations for price developments on a longer term. This distinction is important for you to act accordingly.
The conclusion of both trends is illustrated in the middle of the pyramid in the Forecast tab.
The Fundamental analysis provides the essential background information on the commodity and applies moving average to analyse the individual forces that affect prices. A break above the moving average indicates an uptrend, while a break below the moving average signifies a downtrend. However, it should be noted that the fundamentals tend to change more slowly than the signals in the technical analysis.
The Fundamental data analysis consists of Supply, Demand, Supply/Demand Balance, Inventory, Cost Drivers, Market Watch and Regression. The Regression is the concluding section, summing up the price pressure from the supply, demand, inventory and cost driver sections.
The Weekly Digest is an hour long weekly webinar to give an overview of the previous week's changes forecasts or hedging recommendations.
You can attend live each Friday at 1pm CET or watch the recording when it is uploaded to Mintec Analytics on a Monday.
To watch the uploaded digests, please click Weekly Digest icon at the top of the forecast search page
The solid line represents historical actual pricing and the dotted line represents the forecasted price movement.
The numbers next to the solid line represent the previous forecasts.
The Targets next to the dotted line represent the top or bottom of the price forecast within that quarter.
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The Hedging Recommendation for the short term can be found in the Overview, Forecast Summary and Forecast Tab.
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The trend shows you the direction that price movements are currently heading. The direction of the triangle represents either an upward, downward or sideways movement. The colours also represent the same thing with Red being upwards, green being downwards and yellow being sideways.
We have a number of tutorial videos you can watch to gain a deeper understanding of the methodology and analysis that is used to calculate the forecasts.
All the tutorials can be found by clicking Forecasts from the home page and then the Tutorials icon at the top of the Forecast Search page
In May 2023 Mintec leveraged our Core Forecasts to utilise advanced algorithms to expand the raw materials covered in our Forecasts module.
We did this because many clients were asking us about adding more raw materials, or for specific countries and regions.
Mintec's Algorithmic Forecasts (or "Algos" for ease) are calculated based on a robust methodology that applies advanced statistical analyis to leverage Core Forecasts to generate price predictions.
Building on correlations with Mintec's Core Forecasts, we can show you short term predictions based on vast market data and historical trends.
A Core Forecast has:
An Algorithmic (Algo) Forecast has:
You can look at the Statistical Similarity score which is alongside the Algo Forecast chart, to the right hand side:
Statistical Similarity scores explained:
0-40: Low similarity between the algorithmically forecasted series and its parent forecast, with several periods where they deviate from each other. Algorithmic forecasts should not be expected to be as accurate as those with higher similarities.
40-60: Some similarity between the algorithmically forecasted series and its parent forecast, but with extended periods where they deviate from each other. Algorithmic forecasts should not be expected to be as accurate as those with higher similarities.
60-80: High similarity between the algorithmically forecasted series and its parent forecast, but with some period where they deviate from each other.
80-100: Very high similarity between the algorithmically forecasted series and its parent forecast, with few or no periods where they deviate from each other.
We have coverage in most categories, and have been able to derive additional forecasts (for new countries or regions, or for similar raw materials) for 500+ new data series.
We have Algo Forecasts available in 9 out of 10 Forecast categories.
We have only (relatively) recently added Testliner and Kraftliner to our Core Forecast coverage.
Testliner was introduced in late 2022, followed by Kraftliner in Autumn 2023.
It is expected that we will continue to review our Algo Forecasts coverage, and should there be an opportunity to add Algos for the paper and carton markets, we will inform clients accordingly.
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