World apple, grape, and pear production forecast to rise in 2021/22

December 20, 2021

1 mins read

The USDA released the Deciduous Fruit report for December 2021, issuing updates for the fresh apple, grape, and pear markets. The report forecasts that world production for each of these markets will rise in 2021/22. Global apple production is estimated to reach 81.8 million tonnes, a rise of 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) amid growth in China, the top producing region. In addition, global grape production is expected to reach 25.6 million tonnes, up 4.5% y-o-y, whilst aggregate pear production is foreseen to rise by 3.7% to 23.4 million tonnes over the same period.

China is the largest producer of each of these fruits, consistently dominating world production. Total Chinese production for apples, grapes and pears is expected to rise to 45.0 million tonnes (+11%), 11.2 million tonnes (+2.8%) and 18 million tonnes (+9.1%) respectively. Therefore, an expected rise in Chinese output has a substantial influence on total world production figures.

A greater market supply is likely to exert downward pressure on prices during 2022, as abundant quantities are available to meet market demand. Production will be influenced by various factors, including total acreage devoted to fresh fruit production and crop yields, which are largely affected by weather and costs.

In China, the total area devoted to grape production is rising y-o-y, which is expected to support growth in this industry. Moreover, pear production is forecast to increase amid strong growth in the Xinjiang and Hebei Provinces, following a year of low production in 2020 due to severe frosts. Despite this, elevated costs of fertilisers, transportation and labour are driving input costs higher, meaning prices could still rise in the 2021/22 season. Adverse weather during planting is expected to have minimal impact on 2021/22 apple production quantities in China, however some market participants have reported that the quality of produce is expected to decline. A limited supply of high-quality produce in China could also drive prices higher, potentially offsetting a decline driven by strong supply.

Alice Witchalls
Alice Witchalls

/You May Also Like

Featured Image
  In April 2022, prices across all grades of EU plastics continued to...
Featured Image
in March 2022, US dairy exports almost reached the record high in...