The Prognosfruit conference, held on 3rd August, provided insights into the apple and pear production forecasts for the upcoming harvest.
At the Prognosfruit conference, among the top European apple-producing countries, it was anticipated that there would be a 3.3% decline in production compared to last year, with an estimated total production of 11.4 million tonnes. However, this year's harvest aligns with the average of the past three years, up just 0.3%. In terms of apple varieties, Golden Delicious is set to increase by 11.7%, reaching a total of 2.1 million metric tonnes. The current Mintec price for Golden Delicious apples whs IT is €1.74/kg, marking a 19% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. Gala is projected to grow by 4.8%, reaching 1.5 million metric tons. On the other hand, Red Delicious and Idared varieties are expected to have production declines of 10% and 6.1%, respectively.
The 2023 crop for pears in the EU is estimated to fall by 12.9% compared to the previous year to a total of 1.7 million metric tonnes, 200 thousand metric tonnes lower than the Interpera forecast from the end of June. At Prognosfruit, it was reported that this decrease was largely attributed to Italy's 63% reduction in production compared to 2022, along with lowered volumes from France and the Netherlands by 28.6% and 3.1%, respectively.
Philippe Binard, World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) Secretary General commented on the forecast figures: “the season is starting on a positive background based on a relatively low crop, no overlap with the Southern Hemisphere, empty stocks from the previous season, and the ongoing renovation of orchards.”