The USDA Subjective Almond Forecast, published on 12th May, estimated the 2023 Californian almond crop at 2.50 billion pounds, down 3% from last season but above existing industry estimates. The USDA pegged yields at 1,810 lb/acre, compared with the Wonderful yield estimate of 1,731 lb/acre and the Terra Nova Trading yield estimate at 1,650 lb/acre.
The estimate took sellers off guard with the majority spoken to by Mintec suggesting that the USDA estimate was higher than the situation on the ground would suggest, with one handler saying, “there is too much variability this season for a phone survey to capture the real situation.”
The next major look at 2023 production will come in the USDA Objective Almond Estimate which is due for release on 7th July.
To stay up to date on developments in the almond markets, subscribe to the Mintec Weekly Almond Report by emailing Nuts@Mintecglobal.com. The report, which is released each Thursday, provides in-depth information on pricing and market dynamics.