In the latest WASDE report released by the USDA on the 12th of July 2022, US soyabean output for the upcoming 2022/23 marketing year (MY) (Oct ’22-Sept ’23), was revised lower by 3% from the previous month’s forecast, to 4.5 billion bushels (122m tonnes). Following the release of the report, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyabean price increased by 2% week-on-week (w-o-w) to USD 496/MT, on the 13th of July. However, the CBOT soyabean price has retreated from the unprecedented levels reached in H1 2022; down by 13% month-on-month (m-o-m) on the same day due to weakened demand.
While the revision to the US soyabean output for the 2022/23 MY caused the CBOT soyabean price to rise, the crop is still set to reach a record high in the season; up 7% from the previous five-year average. The revision to the US soyabean crop for 2022/23 MY forecast was due to a reduction in the harvested area. Total US soyabean supply (production + beginning stocks) for the 2022/23 MY is also forecast lower than last month’s estimates; with higher beginning stocks only partly offsetting lower production. Weather conditions from the time of writing (July) till August will continue to be a watch-out factor, driving sentiments in the US soyabean market.