EU wheat exports are projected to fall significantly by 33.6% to 25.5 million tonnes in 2020/21, on the back of strong market competition and lack of exportable surplus according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Heavy rains during winter (planting season) and one of the hottest springs experienced in a decade are expected to weigh on EU wheat total output. The USDA estimates 2020/21 production will total 136.2 million tonnes, down 12% compared to 154.9 million tonnes in 2019/20. If realised, the US would overtake the EU as the second largest wheat exporter, something seen in 2018 as the European region was impacted by heatwaves during the summer.
Wheat export prices from most of the key suppliers rose for the first half of September compared to the same period in the prior month, with US prices showing the most significant increase due to sharp demand from China. Accordingly, the US wheat price on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by 8.9% to $201.3/MT in the four weeks to 9th September.
An increasingly competitive global market is expected for the remainder of the year, particularly as the harvesting season in the southern hemisphere commences, thus potentially resulting in lower prices for US and EU wheat.