US almond shipments top expectations

June 13, 2022

3 mins read

The recent strong pace in US almond shipments continued with the release of the May Position Report by the Almond Board of California on 10 June. Total shipments for May were reported at 257.55 million pounds, a new record and near the top end of industry estimates.

Prior to the release of the May position report, a survey conducted by Mintec saw estimates for May shipments reported in a range of 210-265 million pounds. The majority of market participants returned figures of 235-255 million pounds. The full results of the Mintec pre-Position Report survey, including a breakdown between buyers and sellers, can be found via this link.

Almond shipments May 2022

“It's higher than I had hoped for; originally I was in the 245 million pound camp, and it gives me hope that we could bring the carryout [ending stocks] under 800 million pounds if we can replicate this during June and July”, a US exporter said to Mintec.

For 2021/22 ending stocks to reach 800 million pounds, US exporters have to ship 474 million pounds over June and July, an average of 237 million pounds per month. Strong shipments over the past three months have significantly adjusted industry expectations, with market participants at the start of the year expecting a 900-1,000 million pound ending stocks figure.

Almond ending stocks May 2022

Market participants are unsure if the strong shipment figure will lift the market, given that prices were easing ahead of the Position report, despite industry participants expecting a record shipment figure. The Mintec Benchmark Prices for standard 5% almonds [Mintec Code: NAL1] were assessed at $1.75/lb on 09 June, down 2 cents/lb from the week prior.

Ahead of the release of the position report, a US handler said to Mintec, “it doesn’t seem to matter what the number will be for May as the market is heading south. I guess it just shows there is a lot of uncommitted stock around and people need to clear stores fast.”

There are also concerns over if July shipments will be able to replicate previous months due to a risk of strikes in US ports from the end of June. Negotiations are ongoing between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union to replace the existing contract which expires on 30 June 2022.

If a new contract is not agreed within this timeframe, then it is expected that union members will strike until a deal is finalised. An extension of the current contract has been ruled to be off the table and strike action will severely hamper activities in West Coast ports, in particular Oakland, Long Beach, and Los Angeles.

New season sales lag behind previous years

The May position report also disclosed the first commitments for the 2022/23 crop with 128.6 million pounds sold ahead of harvest so far, the lowest figure for this point in the year since May 2018. Market participants expressed little surprise with one trader stating, “getting offers on new crop has been like pulling teeth. We keep hearing that handlers can’t get any grower support at these prices, so it isn’t surprising that the new crop sales figure is so lacklustre.”

Sellers expressed a focus on current crop sales at the expense of new crop, with one exporter explaining that, “we need to empty our stores and as such we haven’t been offering anything beyond Q4. Prices for new crop are also pretty poor at the moment, I’m not going to bother locking in business just to lose that much money on each container. I doubt prices will go much lower so I may as well wait and see what happens.”

Almond new crop sales May 2022

Several buyers expressed their intent to utilise current crop supplies well into the new season, with one European manufacturer stating, “we are covered with current crop until the end of the year. It looks like we are going to see the same pattern as last year with buyers using old crop for the first quarter of the new season."

Aidan Wright
Aidan Wright

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