The arrival of the off-year biennial cycle for Arabica as well as the higher consumption in key consuming countries has supported the global prices of both varieties since November.
Arabica coffee prices continued to increase substantially in December, reaching a one-year high on the 16th of December, and showing a 6% improvement compared to the previous six-month period. The price increase was mainly supported by the release of the lower estimation (from previous estimates) of Brazil's coffee supply for 2019/20 and indication of stronger demand from consuming countries.
Brazils export reached 37.4 m bags from January to November, an increase of 18% y-o-y, resulting from 2018/19’s record-high harvest. However, with the lower crop in 2019/20 (mainly harvested from April to September), exports volumes started to decline in October, down by 13% compared to October 2018. Brazilian exports are likely to continue to fall in the next six months, especially for Arabica, supporting the current bullish trend in global prices. The upward pressure is also expected to be mirrored by Robusta prices, as buyers will be encouraged to take advantage of the current coffee arbitrage.