Robusta (London) and Arabica (New York) coffee prices have decreased during the last six months, by 8% and 10% respectively, compared to the July-December 2018 period. Prices have also declined when compared to the same period last year (January to June 2018), down 15% in London ICE and by 18% in New York ICE. Prices had rebounded during the last week of May 2019, when the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) revised its estimated surplus from 3.6m bags to 3.1m bags.
Global 2018/19 coffee production reached a record level according to the latest USDA estimates and has been the main driver of the y-o-y price decreases, reaching an 8-year low in May 2019. High ending stocks forecasts (+6% compared to the 5-year average), especially in Brazil, also added further downward pressure on prices in the first 2019 half. In contrast, consistent global consumption growth at +2% y-o-y counterbalanced the high production and stocks, thus limiting the price decreases.
From weather to political, all the factors impacting the coffee market have been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s market outlooks provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.