Following this year’s grape harvest in Turkey, Turkish farmers continue to deliver sultanas to the TMO-held warehouses (Turkish Grain Board). In September, the TMO announced its 2021/22 purchasing intentions, setting the new season intervention price for standard type 9 sultanas at TRY 13/kg, only marginally higher from last year’s TRY 12.5/kg.
Initially, farmers and some industry officials expressed disappointment over the lower-than-expected hike in this year’s prices, citing concerns over rising production costs amid the soaring inflation and weak Turkish lira.
Nonetheless, by the second week of October, the TMO was estimated to had accumulated approximately 25,000 tonnes of sultanas, with many farmers preferring to sell to the agency where they would realise higher revenues than in the free market. On an FOB basis, the Mintec Benchmark Prices of Turkish sultanas (standard type 9) fell 13% in the four-week period to 6th October, to USD 1,625/MT.
Earlier in May, the INC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council) projected that 2021/22 Turkish sultana and raisin output would reach an estimated 300,000 tonnes, steady from the previous 2020/21 season, along with a carry-in of 60,000 tonnes. The USDA forecasts this year’s Turkish sultana and raisin production at 250,000 tonnes, down 8% compared to the prior season. Turkish authorities have not yet published their 2021/22 production estimate.
Mintec anticipates an output of between 280,000 and 300,000 tonnes during the current 2021/22 campaign. The supply in Turkey is expected to sufficiently meet global demand, largely attributable to a hefty carry-in from the previous season.