The Turkish MTB (Malatya Ticaret Borsası) has recently published the 2021/22 dried apricot production estimate for Malatya, Turkey, projecting a crop size of 86,039 tonnes, a marginal increase of 1% y-o-y compared to the previous season. With the additional supply from neighbouring provinces, the overall Turkish output is anticipated to reach around 93,000 tonnes, steady to slightly higher than last year.
However, the total 2021/22 supply could be squeezed through very low carry-in inventory. In May, the INC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council) projected the size of the 2021/22 carry-in stock at 10,000 tonnes. However, market sources speculate that this figure is over-optimistic, pointing towards supply tightness in the past several weeks, especially for smaller sized fruit.
The TMO (Turkish Grain Board) is yet to communicate their purchasing intentions for the new season. At the start of the previous 2020/21 season, the TMO was anticipated to procure up to 10,000 tonnes of dried apricots, however, the volume the agency is thought to have got their hands on is around 2,500 tonnes. It is likely that TMO’s procurement activities will also be muted in the season ahead, owing to firm market prices.
The Mintec price of Turkish dried apricots delivered on a CFR basis UK has been steady since 21st April, at USD 4,400/MT on 14th July, up 29% year-on-year.