The CBOT corn futures MAY-23 contract price was 650.5 USc/56 bushel at the time of writing (30th March 2023), up 3.00% w-o-w. Strong demand from China and tightening supply from Argentina have supported corn prices this week. However, the weather forecast in Brazil does not suggest that there will be any significant threat to the corn crop, which implies that Brazilian production will add to the global carryout and cap major price gains in the long term.
This week, market players reported that China continued to actively purchase corn. Private exporters reported the sale of 204,000 million mt of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 season. Falling prices, export uncertainty via the grain corridor deal and better conditions on the Mississippi River made US corn supplies most attractive for China. A trader noted, “I believe Chinese buyers are taking advantage of the continuous drop in Chicago futures along with drop-in basis, so the flat price has significantly reduced.” According to Chinese customs data, China imported 3.09 million mt of corn in February, an increase of 60% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Argentina had some rain last week and, according to weather forecasts, more rain is expected. As of last week, around 5% of corn was harvested versus 10% last year at the same time. Market players believe that the yield and production estimations might be reduced going forward, as dry and hot weather impacted early corn yields during the grain-filling phase. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates corn production at 35 million mt, while USDA has an estimate of 40 million mt. On another note, Argentinian grain inspectors are going on strike due to low salaries, which have been compounded by high inflation (exceeding 100%) in the country. Market players believe that this strike could negatively impact grain trade in Argentina and thus add support to corn prices.
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