The Mintec price of Spanish lemons declined by 18% to EUR 0.9/kg in the 4 weeks to 7th October, in line with expectations of stronger production in the 2020/21 season.
Spain, Europe’s largest lemon producer is expecting to see an 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in lemon production to 1.29 million tonnes for the 2020/21 season. Production of the Fino variety is forecast to rise by 14% y-o-y to 0.947 million tonnes, whilst production of the late-season Verna is set to fall by 5% y-o-y to 0.344 million metric tonnes.
Earlier in the year Spanish lemon prices rocketed due to heightened demand for vitamin C, amid COVID-19. This led average Q2 2020 prices to be 50% higher compared to the same quarter in the previous year. During Q3 2020, demand for lemons softened and became a key driver to the bearish sentiment in the market. The most recent downturn in the lemon prices has allowed the fruit to be commercially competitive against the aggressive supply of lemons from competing countries such as Turkey and Egypt.
Considering these fundamentals, the price of Spanish lemons is expected to continue its downward trend for the remainder of the year.