The Mintec price of Spanish oranges declined by 35% to EUR 0.7/kg in the 4 months to 13th January. The price drop can be attributed to an increase in orange supplies across the European markets, most notably from Spain. The European market witnessed large volumes of orange imports from countries such as Turkey, Morocco and South Africa during 2020 and this dictated orange prices in Europe.
The price difference as of the 30th December between the Spanish and Turkish market stood at EUR 0.5/kg, 59% below the peak margin of 10th June. The spread kept above the EUR 1/kg mark between June and September, which prompted European producers to import larger volumes from South Africa and other African suppliers. Accordingly, European orange markets exhibited a bearish trend, and thereby narrowing of the spread. The price spread between Spain and Turkey was further influenced by an expected increase in European orange production for 2020/21 marketing year (MY), dampening the European orange price. European orange production is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 6.55 million tonnes for 2020/21 MY, with a rise in Spanish output by 170,000 tonnes y-o-y to 3.45 million tonnes. The forecasts are higher due to the favourable weather conditions in Spain’s main orange producing regions of Valencia and Andalusia.
Meanwhile, the price spread between the Spanish and South African orange market is in negative territory as of the 6th January, with the South African orange price at a premium to the Spanish market, having been at a discount of approximately EUR 1.15/kg on the 10th June. The current price spread disincentives European importers to procure supplies from the South African market.